Dynamic Primate Contact Networks and Disease Risk

Abstract.  Epidemics are emergent processes, arising through the non-linear interaction of hosts, pathogens, and environments. Therefore, any general theory of epidemics must be derived using a system dynamics approach. Primates provide a unique opportunity to undertake such an effort. For a diverse set of primate species, long-term datasets on inter and intra group behavior, abiotic and biotic environmental variation, and disease incidence have been collected. Using such data from White-Faced Capuchin monkeys on Barro Colorado Island in Panama and Mountain Gorillas in the Virunga National Park in the Democratic Republic of the Congo we will construct a model of how variation in inter and intra-group contact patterns affects social contact networks and impacts disease risk. The results from this working group will become the foundation for a system dynamics model of disease in primates.