Abstract: The COVID-19 infection and healthcare dynamics in Denmark is modeled and simulated from the onset to March 5, 2021 when the impact of vaccination intervention starts to become significant. The simulation is primarily matched and calibrated to hospital, death, and immunity data, as well as antibody measurements. From these investigations an infection detection efficiency is estimated starting July 1, 2020 when a national infection detection program is implemented. The infection detection efficiency is estimated by comparing the time evolution of the estimated infection level with the daily identified infected individuals based on the national testing and contact tracing program. We find that the Danish national testing program on average identified about 45% of the infected individuals, with variations between 10% and 90%, between July 1, 2020 and March 5, 2021. From these investigations a list of lessons learned is compiled seeking to propose more efficient infection tracing procedures for potential future pandemics.
Speaker
Steen RasmussenExternal Professor