The Senescence of Social Systems?

Do social systems age? That is, does their likelihood of terminating increase or decrease with either time (their persistence) or scale? How does the likelihood of termination relate to how large (in terms of their population, geographical size) they are? How long do different social systems tend to last? Is their persistence linked to their scale and growth? Are there any lessons to be learned from other complex systems? 

The study of growth, persistence, and aging at scales beyond individual organisms is nascent. Quantitative studies for pre-modern states suggest that their risk of termination rises over the first two centuries of their existence. Meanwhile, empires, species and firms largely appear to have a ‘memoryless distribution’. Such patterns can arise in a continuous competitive process which has been attributed to the ‘Red Queen’s effect’, which assumes that continuous adaptation and evolution is required for survival. 

Initial findings on the persistence of settlements suggest that early settlements generally last longer than states and empires, while exhibiting significant variation at a global scale. This emerging work intersects with modern concerns over potential limits to growth. That is, that the modern global system is exceeding ecological boundaries and will need to economically contract to prevent collapse. One prominent theory of the scaling of economic growth and innovation suggests that we will eventually overaccelerate and collapse. 

Underpinning all this work is an emerging sub-field on the relationship between growth, scale, and longevity in complex systems. This working group will look to draw together these different threads and develop a more systematic approach to answering these questions.