The Santa Fe Institute hosted ACtioN’s Annual Risk Meeting with UBS to explore Beliefs, Narratives, and Market Structure on October 7th & 8th, 2020. Narratives and belief dynamics impact market structure, market behavior, and by extension market risk. For example, belief convergence drives crowding, contagion, and the growing prevalence of passive management. Belief instability drives market volatility. This meeting seeks to examine market risk through the lens of belief dynamics, changing narratives, and market structure.
Day 1: The Spread and Manipulation of Beliefs and Narratives | Wednesday, October 7th
Sense-Making at Scale with Simon DeDeo
Simon’s talk focused on understanding how explanations work, and exploring the systematic ways in which explanations go wrong. He puts belief in extreme conspiracy theories on a continuum with healthy epistemic practices. In so doing, Simon tries to identify the universal mechanisms that drive belief adoption, such as Unification, Concision, Validity, and Consilience. In the second half of the talk, he focuses on consilience. He first demonstrates the role of consilience in shaping the direction of scientific progress, but then shows how consilience fuels the growth of anti-social conspiracy-based internet communities such as QAnon and the Red Pill.