Santa Fe
Institute

Limits to Prediction (video)

Topical Meeting

All day

This event is private.

London, UK 

Co-hosted by Willis Towers Watson

Summary:

In what situations are there absolute limits to prediction, and how are those limits determined? There is a relatively short list of high-level reasons that a system can be hard to predict: (1) the dynamics may be in some sense inherently unpredictable (e.g. chaotic), (2) the financial or energetic cost of measuring the system to sufficient accuracy may be prohibitive, (3) the computational problem of prediction may be difficult (e.g. NP-complete, or worse, uncomputable), even when provided with unlimited data, and/or (4) the state space itself may be unknown, as is the case in systems that adapt, evolve, or innovate.

This Topical / Business "Vitamin B" meeting reported out on a SFI scientific workshop, which convened researchers who work on the mathematical, algorithmic, and practical aspects of prediction. This practitioner-oriented meeting included members of the original scientific workshop, as well as relevant social scientists and decision-makers from ACtioN member organizations.

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Purpose: 
Applied Complexity Network
SFI Host: 
Casey Cox

Introduction

AuthorsTim Hodgson and Will Tracy

Introduction - Tim Hodgson, Willis Towers Watson, and Will Tracy, SFI

Fundamental Limits to Prediction

AuthorsDavid Krakauer, SFI President and Professor

Fundamental Limits to Prediction - David Krakauer, President and William H. Miller Professor of Complex Systems, Santa Fe Institute

Predicting the Antigenic Evolution of Influenza Viruses

AuthorsTerry Jones, University of Cambridge

Predicting the Antigenic Evolution of Influenza Viruses - Terry Jones, University of Cambridge

Limits to Prediction in Economics and Elsewhere

AuthorsJ. Doyne Farmer, University of Oxford and SFI External Professor

Limits to Prediction in Economics and Elsewhere - J. Doyne Farmer, University of Oxford and SFI External Professor

Language Evolution Is Predictable, up to a Point

AuthorsMark Pagel, University of Reading and SFI External Professor

Language Evolution Is Predictable, up to a Point - Mark Pagel, University of Reading and SFI External Professor

Rock, Paper, Scissors, Higgs: from quantum field theory to the No-Trade theorem

AuthorsSimon DeDeo, Carnegie Mellon University and SFI External Professor

Rock, Paper, Scissors, Higgs: from quantum field theory to the No-Trade theorem - Simon DeDeo, Carnegie Mellon University and SFI External Professor

Outro

AuthorsDavid Krakauer

Outro - David Krakauer, President and William H. Miller Professor of Complex Systems, Santa Fe Institute

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