Topical Meeting

All day

This event is private.

Venue: Morgan Stanley World Headquarters, New York, NY

Co-hosted by Morgan Stanley

Summary: Increasing computational power, increasingly large amounts of data, and increasingly clever algorithms combine to allow prediction and forecasting in problem areas and over time scales previously thought intractable. Yet as every member of the financial industry knows, there are limits! This meeting will explore the accomplishments, the promise, and the limits of forecasting over a range of applications. Speakers will include Henry Kauffman, Antti Ilmanen, Richard Bookstaber, Phil Tetlock, and Bruce Bueno-Mesquita. 

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Business Network

With Forecasting, Strategic Beats Tactical, and Many Beats Few

AuthorsAntti Ilmanen, AQR Capital

The Forecasting Frenzy

AuthorsHenry Kaufman, Henry Kaufman & Company

Geopolitical Forecasting Tournaments Test the Limits of Judgment

AuthorsPhilip Tetlock, University of Pennsylvania

Challenges of Forecasting with Fat-Tailed Data

AuthorsAaron Clauset, University of Colorado and SFI

Panel Discussion

The Predictioneer's Game

AuthorsBruce Bueno-Mesquita, New York University

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