A Model of Mass Extinction

A number of authors have in recent years proposed that the processes of macroevolution may give rise to self-organized critical phenomena which could have a significant effect on the dynamics of ecosystems. In particular, it has been suggested that mass extinction may arise through a purely biotic mechanism as the result of so-called coevolutionary avalanches. In this paper we first explore the empirical evidence which has been put forward in favor of this conclusion. The data center principally around the existence of power-law functional forms in the distribution of the sizes of extinction events and other quantities. We then propose a new mathematical model of mass extinction which does not rely on coevolutionary effects and in which extinction is caused entirely by the action of environmental stresses on species. In combination with a simple model of species adaptation, we show that this process can account for all the observed data without the need to invoke coevolution and critical processes. The model also makes some independent predictions, such as the existence of “aftershock” extinctions in the aftermath of large massextinction events, which should in theory be testable against the fossil record.