In the Miller-McCune podcast “Curiouser and Curiouser,” SFI Omidyar Fellow Nathan Collins talks about his research that reveals some surprising long-term trends in voter behavior, and turnout, during presidential elections.
Listen to the interview (14 minutes)
Using national election data from 1945 through 2000 and looking at party choice and turnout simultaneously, Collins created a model to explain what issues matter most to voters. He concludes that while major economic events, such as the Great Depression, the oil crisis of the 1970s, or 9/11, do affect voting patterns, smaller ups and downs in the economic climate and even demographic shifts don’t make as much difference as pundits lead us to believe.
Collins adds that the probability that a voter will choose a candidate from a party different from their own, or not vote at all, has a lot to do with whether or not their party won the previous election.
Listen to the interview (14 minutes, July 6, 2011)