Sarah E. Marzen and James P. Crutchfield

Paper #: 2017-04-009

Abstract.  Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical complexity of stochastic processes generated by finite unifilar hidden semi-Markov models—memoryful, state-dependent versions of renewal processes. Calculating these quantities requires introducing novel mathematical objects (ε-machines of hidden semi-Markov processes) and new information-theoretic methods to stochastic processes.