R0 is just an average: the transmission rate varies widely, and outbreaks can be surprisingly large even when the epidemic is subcritical.
Transmission T-023: David Tuckett, Lenny Smith, Gerd Gigerenzer, and Jürgen Jost on making good decisions under uncertainty
To make good decisions under uncertainty, decision-makers must act creatively to avoid paralysis, while recognizing the possibility of failure.
https://santafe.edu/people/profile/david-krakauerTest kits cannot exponentiate at the same rate as the virus. Unless we ramp up to 500K, the curve will flatten due to artifact.
The archaeological record can teach us much about cultural resilience and how to adapt to exogenous threats.
Exercise is a complex medicine that can make seniors less susceptible to frailty, and thus to COVID-19. To help the medicine go down, we need a systematic approach to improving the one technology that we know keeps people on task.
The U.S. is likely to see a near-term 24% drop in employment, 17% percent drop in wages, and 22% drop in economic activity as a result of the COVID-19 crisis according to a new study co-authored by SFI External Professor Doyne Farmer at the University of Oxford. These impacts will be very unevenly distributed, with the bottom quarter of earners at risk of a 42% loss in employment and bearing a 30% share of total wage losses. In contrast, the study estimates the top quarter of earners only risk a 7% drop in employment and an 18% share of wage losses.
There’s no free lunch when it comes to making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic.
Common-sense estimates provide quantitative ways to think about the economic impact of COVID-19 in Italy.
Complexity science and computer algorithms can help us address privacy concerns that arise with the pandemic.
American higher education must think outside the academy in a post-pandemic world.
It is important to keep in mind that as agents we maintain bottom-up control, even if we lack decisive power.
Despite the near-universal assumption of individuality in biology, there is little agreement about what individuals are and few rigorous quantitative methods for their identification. A new approach may solve the problem by defining individuals in terms of informational processes.
Beyond our response to the pandemic itself lie the longer-term effects, including new opportunities — social, political, economic, and otherwise.
The current spike in public trust in science gives science communicators an opportunity to reach new audiences.
This time of disruption is also one of opportunity.
A complex systems perspective of viruses offers insight for controlling SARS-CoV-2 and future emerging viruses.
Typical recession and recovery economic behavior offers great stock market buying opportunities.
The analogies we live by are shaping our thoughts about our current situation.
Physical distancing is necessary for reducing infections, but the timing of restrictive confinement makes all the difference.