Well-mixed models do not protect the vulnerable in segregated societies.
Transmission T-033: Brian Enquist on how pandemics rapidly reshape the evolutionary & ecological landscape
Pandemics rapidly reshape the evolutionary and ecological landscape and have cascading social, economic, and other system-level effects.
The countervailing pressures of economic pain and disease containment are keeping the COVID-19 pandemic at a noisy equilibrium.
The COVID-19 pandemic offers an opportunity to out-evolve the virus by evolving our own scientific ingenuity and social practices.
External Professor Constantino Tsallis and his colleague describe a single function that accurately describes all existing available data on active COVID-19 cases and deaths—and predicts forthcoming peaks.
SFI Trustee Katherine Collins and ACtioN member Putnam Investments are co-hosting a Virtual Topical Meeting May 27-28 to explore how complexity science can inform sustainable investing. The meeting will bring investors together with leading climate and complexity scientists to discuss “The Complexity of Sustainability and Investing.”
On April 15, SFI hosted a flash discussion that focused on human behavior, incentives, and beliefs. The overarching message was that the financial and social fallout of the pandemic, while difficult to predict, will largely depend on actions at individual, community, and institutional levels.
Study: ‘Near-unliveable’ heat for one-third of humans within 50 years if greenhouse gas emissions are not cut
Areas of the planet home to one-third of humans will become as hot as the hottest parts of the Sahara within 50 years, unless greenhouse gas emissions fall, according to research by an international research team of archaeologists, ecologists, and climate scientists. The study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences this week, resulted from a 2018 SFI working group on climate change and the human "niche." It finds that rapid heating would mean that 3.5 billion people would live outside the temperature and humidity combinations in which humans have thrived for 6,000 years.
The concept of the extended phenotype provides a way to circumscribe Landauer’s bound.
Forecasting ambiguity is inevitable in exponential growth processes that underlie epidemics.
COVID-19 lockdowns provide a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to study wildlife in empty cities.
Mechanism design can aid the market in meeting extraordinary needs under unusual circumstances.
Policies for responding to pandemics should be rooted in a scientific understanding of cities.
R0 is just an average: the transmission rate varies widely, and outbreaks can be surprisingly large even when the epidemic is subcritical.
Transmission T-023: David Tuckett, Lenny Smith, Gerd Gigerenzer, and Jürgen Jost on making good decisions under uncertainty
To make good decisions under uncertainty, decision-makers must act creatively to avoid paralysis, while recognizing the possibility of failure.
Test kits cannot exponentiate at the same rate as the virus. Unless we ramp up to 500K, the curve will flatten due to artifact.
The archaeological record can teach us much about cultural resilience and how to adapt to exogenous threats.