The Other Side of Body Size: A Stochastic Framework for Predicting Ecological Resilience Across Disturbance Gradients

This project aims to develop a modelling framework to assess ecosystem resilience by leveraging size distributions as a universal signature of disturbance responses. Integrating Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE) with environmental stochasticity and life-history strategies, this novel framework addresses overlooked variability in scaling relationships caused by abiotic stressors and demographic heterogeneity. It tracks how growth, mortality, and competitive interactions drive size-abundance dynamics across disturbance regimes, connecting shifts in environment-phenotype coupling to specific stressor profiles. This integration not only enables precise identification of baseline ecosystem states but also provides means to better predict how ecosystems respond under various disturbance regimes. The approach thus bridges theoretical gaps in biological scaling, offering practical insights for resilience assessment in rapidly changing environments.

This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under award No. OISE 2106013. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. National Science Foundation.