Collins Conference Room
Seminar
  US Mountain Time

Our campus is closed to the public for this event.

Henrik Olsson (University of Warwick; SFI External Professor)

Abstract.  The literature on the wisdom of crowds argues that in most situations, the aggregated judgments of a large crowd perform better than the average individual. There are, however, many real-world cases where crowds perform poorly. A small crowd literature has since developed, finding that better performing small crowds often exist within whole crowds. We compare previously proposed small crowd selection methods based on absolute or relative group performance to a new sequential search method inspired by machine learning techniques. Using forecasts of economic indicators made by professional forecasters, we find that the new sequential search method selects better performing small crowds than previous methods.

Purpose: 
Research Collaboration
SFI Host: 
Jennifer Dunne

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