Enhancing Counterfactual Reasoning for Complex Environments

This Micro Working Group convened a small group of researchers to explore emerging questions at the intersection of complexity science, artificial intelligence, and strategic decision-making. Anchored in the ongoing CROMA initiative (Counterfactual Reasoning and Operational Modeling Architecture), the meeting focused on the challenges of applying counterfactual reasoning and structured network models to support decisions in environments marked by uncertainty and limited data. 

Over the course of two days, participants shared theoretical insights and discussed preliminary approaches for integrating knowledge graphs and generative AI with resilience-based models. Particular attention was given to questions of interpretability, transparency, and the role of structured "what-if" scenarios in supporting decision processes. While still at an early stage, the meeting helped clarify key conceptual gaps and opened possibilities for future collaboration and development.