Populations on the Brink: Robust Estimation for Optimal Reintroduction Ranges

Population dynamics are often modeled using deterministic ordinary differential equation models, which ignore stochastic effects. However, some systems, such as the Isle Royale wolf-moose population, exist in a regime where stochastic effects are very relevant. Recently, the Isle Royale wolf population declined to two individuals, and wolves were reintroduced. Choosing the number of wolves to reintroduce to preserve the oscillatory nature of the system and avoid future extinctions is a complex problem. Determining the “right” number of wolves to reintroduce likely depends on modeling paradigm and implicit modeling assumptions. We will use an ensemble approach to model this system in all “reasonable” ways and ultimately compute the optimal number of wolves to reintroduce across the model ensemble.