Santa Fe Institute

The UN Medium Population Projection is an Unstable Equilibrium

DeLong, J. P., Burger, O., Hamilton, M. J. (2013).

Frontiers in Ecology and Environment 11(2):65-66

Abstract: Press Release excerpt: “The upper limit suggested by the United Nations hardly represents a stable equilibrium,” Oskar Burger said. The results of the team’s model have now been published in the science magazine “Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment”. The model is based on the observation that population growth strongly depends on per capita energy use: if more energy is available, economic development will continue, which will in turn put pressure on birth rates. If birth rates are sufficiently low throughout the world, the global population will stop growing. Burger’s model is thus at variance with the projections of the United Nations, which simply extrapolates a trend towards declining numbers of birth observed over the past several decades.